Whether commodity futures market in agriculture is efficient in price discovery? - An econometric analysis

In any agriculture-dominated economy, like India, farmers face not only yield risk but price risk as well. Commodity futures and derivatives have a crucial role to play in the price risk management process, especially in agriculture. The present study is an investigation into the futures markets in agricultural commodities in India. The statistical analysis of data on price discovery in a sample of four agricultural commodities traded in futures exchanges have indicated that price discovery does not occur in agricultural commodity futures market. The econometric analysis of the relationship between price return, volume, market depth and volatility has shown that the market volume and depth are not significantly influenced by the return and volatility of futures as well as spot markets. The Bartlett’s test statistic has been found insignificant in both the exchanges, signifying that the futures and spot markets are not integrated. The exchange-specific problems like thin volume and low market depth, infrequent trading, lack of effective participation of trading members, non-awareness of futures market among farmers, no well-developed spot market in the vicinity of futures market, poor physical delivery, absence of a well-developed grading and standardization system and market imperfections have been found as the major deficiencies retarding the growth of futures market. The future of futures market in respect of agricultural commodities in India, calls for a more focused and pragmatic approach from the government. The Forward Markets Commission and SEBI have a greater role in addressing all the institutional and policy level constraints so as to make the agricultural commodity futures and derivatives a meaningful, purposeful and vibrant segment for price risk management in the Indian agriculture.Agricultural Finance,

Forecasting technological needs and prioritizing factors in agriculture from a plant breeding and genetics domain perspective: A review

Future technologies in the domain of Indian agriculture are expected to be different from what these are now. The subject of Technology Forecasting (TF) can be resorted to identify the needs to fill the gaps in the present technological trends. As a TF exercise, Brainstorming and Questionnaire approaches were employed to envision future technological needs for one of the subdomains of agriculture, i e Plant Breeding and Genetics (PB&G). Information obtained from experts was subjected to linear combination weighted scoring method for prioritizing key factors leading to future technological needs and were analyzed using multi-dimensional scaling for identifying key agricultural dimensions

Econometric modeling of tobacco exports in the milieu of changing global and national policy regimes: repercussions on the Indian tobacco sector

IntroductionTobacco, an important commercial crop, plays a crucial role in farmers' incomes and livelihoods to a sizable population and contributes significant exchange earnings to the Indian economy. Currently, India is the second-largest tobacco producer after China, with a production of 758 million kg (13% of global production) and exports of ~190 million kg of tobacco (9% of global tobacco export volume). However, there are uncertainties surrounding the tobacco sector, such as growing public health and environmental issues associated with tobacco production and consumption and changing national and international tobacco-related policy regimes. In this context, the current study investigates the determinants of tobacco exports and geographical shifts in export destinations over the years.MethodsThe statistical models employed are co-integration, and vector error-correlation models to test the short-run and long-run dynamics relationship between tobacco exports and the explanatory variables, and the Markov chain approach to find out geographical shifts in export destinations.Results and discussionThe econometric model estimated the relationship between the tobacco export volume with domestic production, export price, and global demand for Indian tobacco, and investigated the geographical shift in export destinations of tobacco in the context of changing global and national policy regimes on the sector. The econometric modeling framework confirms that there exists a statistically significant relationship between Indian tobacco export demand, domestic production, export price, and world demand for Indian tobacco. The geographical shift was evident in major export destinations during the post-WHO-FCTC (Framework Convention on Tobacco Control) regime. The model findings direct that India should take advantage of the export price, and global demand for tobacco as India ratified WHO-FCTC; there is no scope for horizontal expansion of the area under tobacco. This modeling framework aids as a tool to direct and explore the possible options with a greater emphasis on export-centric farming system in tobacco production by augmenting crop compliance and quality to meet the standards of international markets

Nucleation of the electroactive γ phase and enhancement of the optical transparency in low filler content poly(vinylidene)/clay nanocomposites

Poly(vinylidene fluoride), PVDF, based nanocomposites with different clays structures have been processed by solvent casting and melt crystallisation. Depending on the melting temperature of the polymer, the nanocomposite recrystalises in the electroactive or non electroactive β-phase of the polymer. This fact is related to the thermal behaviour of the clay. For montmorillonite clay, the full crystallisation of the electroactiveγ-phase occurs for clay contents lower than 0.5 wt%, allowing the nanocomposites to maintain the mechanical properties of the polymer matrix. The electroactivity of the material has been proven by measuring the piezoelectric d33 response of the material. The obtained value of d33 is -7 pC/N, lower than in β-PVDF obtained by mechanical stretching, but still among the largest coefficients obtained for polymers. Further, the optical transmittance in the visible range is strongly enhanced with respect to the transmittance of the pure polymer. Finally, it is demonstrated that the nucleation of the β-phase can be also obtained in other clays, such as in kaolinite and laponite.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) - NANO/NMed-SD/0156/2007, PTDC/CTM/69316/2006, PTDC/CTM-NAN/112574/2009, SFRH/BD/62507/2009.FEDER funds through the "Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade – COMPETECOST Action MP1003, the ‘European Scientific Network for Artificial Muscles’ (ESNAM)

Performance and Relevance of Wheat Futures Market in India – An Exploratory Analysis

The present study highlights the context of wheat futures trading in India and examines its performance in terms of price transmission between Indian and US futures, domestic futures and spot markets, and, extent of integration between those markets. Role of wheat futures in price stabilisation/volatility reduction and its relevance to the small scale production system in the country have also been examined. Evidence of unit root in price series and a strong integration between spot and futures markets in India were found through Johansen’s test. Despite the integration of domestic markets, US and Indian futures are not integrated in the long-run. Application of Generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model indicated a high degree of volatility in spot prices right from inception of trading and revival of trading, however it was low during the ban period. This showed that the function of price stabilisation of futures trading has not been fulfilled. Despite futures market serving as a platform for price discovery and hedging, low marketed surplus and the complexity in trading avoids farmers’ participation. On the whole, the study concludes that wheat futures are efficient in price transmission but inefficient in price stabilisation and warrants for awareness, margin money discount and aggregating farmers produce so that farmers can participate and take advantage of hedging in an uncertain situation of the farm business

Not Available

Not AvailableTo sustain the pre-eminent position of cotton in the country's economy and enhance profitability of cotton cultivation, total revamping on the policy front is required to meet the ensuing competition where price, phytosanitary standards, honouring the commitment, timely deliveryand quick adjustment to the changing economic order are going to be the chief determinants of acountry's standing in the international commodity trade. In relaxing the constraints andenhancing the cotton yield, suggested and identified remedies at research, development andinstitutional levelsNot Availabl

Whether commodity futures market in agriculture is efficient in price discovery? - An econometric analysis

In any agriculture-dominated economy, like India, farmers face not only yield risk but price risk as well. Commodity futures and derivatives have a crucial role to play in the price risk management process, especially in agriculture. The present study is an investigation into the futures markets in agricultural commodities in India. The statistical analysis of data on price discovery in a sample of four agricultural commodities traded in futures exchanges have indicated that price discovery does not occur in agricultural commodity futures market. The econometric analysis of the relationship between price return, volume, market depth and volatility has shown that the market volume and depth are not significantly influenced by the return and volatility of futures as well as spot markets. The Bartlett’s test statistic has been found insignificant in both the exchanges, signifying that the futures and spot markets are not integrated. The exchange-specific problems like thin volume and low market depth, infrequent trading, lack of effective participation of trading members, non-awareness of futures market among farmers, no well-developed spot market in the vicinity of futures market, poor physical delivery, absence of a well-developed grading and standardization system and market imperfections have been found as the major deficiencies retarding the growth of futures market. The future of futures market in respect of agricultural commodities in India, calls for a more focused and pragmatic approach from the government. The Forward Markets Commission and SEBI have a greater role in addressing all the institutional and policy level constraints so as to make the agricultural commodity futures and derivatives a meaningful, purposeful and vibrant segment for price risk management in the Indian agriculture

Not Available

Not AvailableNot AvailableNot Availabl

Not Available

Not AvailableNot AvailableNot Availabl